It has been more than a full year since the world became aware of the historic, transformative virus – coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) – and the consequent disease, COVID-19.[1] Societies have been substantively altered, in some ways, perhaps irreversibly. When state and local governments responded to the unknown with lockdown and isolation protocols that few living Americans could have previously envisioned, citizens mostly abided. When the federal government responded with the then-most expensive piece of legislation in history, The Offence opined that the virus itself was a challenge, but so too was the need to find balance when facing risk,[2] a premise largely unexplored by the nation’s leaders, both its political and scientific. The concepts conceived therein included unprecedented measures for an unprecedented crisis, including the advocation of facemasks ahead of the official guidelines subsequently adopted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).[3]
The elected and non-elected politicians’ answers to the crisis? Rather than emphasize the traditional American values of liberty and independence, tempered by concern for one’s neighbor, and explaining the price of freedom,[4] time after time, though in some states less than others, they took the visionless option and did what they know – exercise their power, increased restrictions, spend money and enhance the public’s dependence on them.
A year later, embracing balance is gathering momentum as the rule-makers are exposed for their hypocrisy – giving rise to complaints of “rules for thee, not for me”[5] – and moving the goal posts. Was their approach, and the public’s frustration avoidable? Americans have grown more resistant to restrictions in the “land of the free.”[6]
In the Age of Want, where waves of emotion reign superior to rational thought, a response was primed for what could go down as the greatest overreaction in the history of mankind. Should that sound hyperbole, consider, the virus and the disease are real and action was required, but in the thousands of years of civilizations, the world had never shut down, for anything.
And with years of calls of crises wherein the news moved from one to the next, heightened during the Trump presidency, the public may have been primed to accept the coronavirus crisis and the politicians’ assumption of power as they laid claim to the source of solutions, solutions time would prove they clearly did not have. Meanwhile, those who questioned the accepted orthodox on the virus and the efficacy of lockdowns, instead stressing their unintended negative impacts, were largely castigated and dismissed – if not censored[7] – including scientists, such as those who signed the Great Barrington Declaration, which called for reduced restrictions and a targeted approach.[8] Similarly, governors who resisted shuttering their states’ economies were widely criticized.[9]
The Great Suppression would begin to reach its peak.
How did this begin and what exactly has happened?
From Whence It Came
When whispers of this new virus emerged from China in late 2019, many dismissed it as a local affair, under control, something that should be of little concern to other nations. In fairness, it was early for the novel coronavirus, but in February 2020, dismissals came from politicians such as Nancy Pilosi and Bill De Blasio, who went even further and supported gathering in their cities’ Chinatowns,[10],[11] as well as scientists such as infectious disease expert, Anthony Fauci, who suggested Americans need not change their lifestyles.[12]
The scientific community supported this position publicly and echoed the World Health Organization’s (WHO) assessment of the outbreak in Wuhan, which was itself the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) narrative.[13] Never should one mind that the WHO leader was consistently pro-China prior to the arrival of the virus[14] and praised their leaders’ actions, advocating against travel bans in February 2020,[15] all despite the CCP’s imposition of restrictions on the investigation.[16] Inevitably, merely weeks later, when forced to face the facts, the WHO acknowledged the virus was out of control and declared a global pandemic.[17]
Why was the world so quick to trust the CCP and a government infamous for its disinformation and propaganda?[18]
When Senator Tom Cotton questioned the coronavirus outbreak’s proximity to China’s Wuhan super-lab, he was dismissed as a conspiracy theorist.[19] Never should one mind that Chinese labs had a history of letting strains of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) escape and the suspect lab was known to house some of the world’s most dangerous pathogens.[20] It took about a year of international pressure for China to permit a more thorough investigation, which again lacked transparency from the CCP, leaving scientists with unconvincing answers about the origins of the virus, dismissing both the Wuhan lab and wet market theories.[21]
Why did the CCP spend a year rejecting the assistance of the international scientific community?
With some reasonable measures already in place, such as frequent handwashing and social distancing, The Offence posited that a series of additional mitigation efforts could allow for a free society to remain free. Such efforts, as conceived then, included the legalized enforcement of facemask mandates and virus identification by use of wristbands, extreme measures for extreme circumstances, but only on a legally-authorized, temporary, as-needed basis, and further argued for consideration of a long-term Contagion Defense Act (CDA) to prepare for the possibility of future epidemics.
The government response in March 2020? What began as 15 Days to Slow the Spread[22] turned into prolific stay-at-home orders[23] which turned into months of government-mandated shutdowns and pro-longed isolation.[24] The results? More than 100,000 businesses have been permanently closed.[25] Over 22 million jobs were lost.[26] Suicides rates rose to their highest since World War II.[27] A pre-existing epidemic in children’s mental health has been exposed and exacerbated.[28] Americans have lost a year in life expectancy.[29] Trillions of dollars have been spent (or set aside),[30] leaving these very children left to pay for the short-sighted and vision-free solutions of the nation’s political class, with interest. (No doubt, many of these payments will come in remittance to the virus’ origin nation, obfuscator and increasing adversary, China, for purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds.) What is more, Washington has held no meaningful discussions on how to avoid another such catastrophe, leaving them left relying on dramatic and reactionary rather than proactive solutions.
Based on the available data, The Offence contended that the existing strain of virus was not as deadly as the public was being led to believe, that, with exception, fatality (and the harsher effects of the disease) was reserved for the elderly and, most likely, those with pre-existing health conditions that could serve as comorbidities. (Indeed, the virus’ fatality rate largely paralleled the general population’s fatality rate by age.)
For those who were unable to self-isolate due to their finances, health, etc., governments could have explored public-private partnerships with the thousands of struggling motels across the country, hotels that offer isolation via external access, i.e. drive-up, and outdoor common areas in the form of parking lots. Medical points of dispensing (POD) and public health officials could have been set up at such facilities for pre-screening and emergency response. The hotel industry would have received some direct assistance while providing a public good. Thousands of hospitality jobs could have been saved.
Was anything of this nature considered?
Instead, the scientific community responded with untargeted, near-universal top-down recommendations that restricted every American’s life and wage-earners’ livelihoods, expressing little concern for the wide-ranging impacts and long-term damage that might result from such measures.
The federal government, reminiscent of its response to the financial crisis at the onset of the Great Recession, proceeded with a ‘jump to worst’ conclusion that serves as a hallmark of the age, projecting millions of deaths[31] and issuing trillions in debt.
In addition to more stringent stay-at-home orders, state governments across the country, from New York[32] to California,[33] even ordered COVID-positive patients back into nursing homes, where the most vulnerable resided. What is more, under what may prove to be political pressure, New York went so far as to misrepresent its deaths at these facilities,[34] which may have negatively impacted other states’ policies. Meanwhile, its governor, Andrew Cuomo, who issued his state’s nursing home order, was writing his memo, American Crisis: Leadership Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic.[35]
Where Did the Facts Land?
Composite evidence indicates that hospitalizations and deaths are 7,900 times more likely among those 85 years of age than those 5 – 17,[36] not inconsistent with the information coming from other countries’ early experiences before the virus started taking hold in America,[37] nor the early U.S. data.[38] (A subsequent study released in May 2020 would later reinforce the risk factors due to age.[39])
A year later, the data held.
Approximately 85% of COVID-related fatalities have been to those 65 years of age and older.[40] Interestingly, analysis of Statista’s data suggests the average age of these deaths is approximately 75, placing the average year of birth at 1945. According to Social Security, the life expectancy for those born in 1945 was 72.2 and 77.7 for men and women respectively – on average, that very same 75.[41]
Further, nearly 80% of U.S. patients hospitalized for COVID-19 have been overweight or obese[42] – a known comorbidity factor and American health epidemic in itself – and fatality rates are ten (10) times higher in countries with populations where 50% of the adults are overweight.[43] Although lasting ill-effects of contraction may prove to be a concern for survivors, the worst of the disease was disproportionately reserved to aged, infirmed and unhealthy, as should have been expected.
It took nearly a year, but the scientific community has come to the recognition that the virus poses little threat to the young and healthy, only recently indicating that it is safe to re-open public schools to in-person learning, even reducing the social distancing recommendations.[44] Never should one mind that private schools have largely remained open,[45] operating without outbreaks for the better part of a year. How dangerous has the virus been to children in the U.S.? Fewer than 250 have died.[46] Tragic as this is, it remains a relatively small number, hardly greater than a rough seasonal flu.[47]
To provide some context, on an annual basis, about twice as many men die of breast cancer.[48] Does the medical community support men receiving regular mammograms and mastectomies, or is the treatment targeted, reserved for the vulnerable – women?
Contrary to the popular refrain, coronavirus clearly discriminates, perhaps not as respects contraction, but as respects what matters, the ill-effects of COVID-19, and at extraordinary variance.
The Offence’s risk assessment also suggested, perhaps controversially, that slowly exposing healthy individuals as vaccines were in development – albeit only resulting from unintended exposure despite mitigation measures – would accelerate the rate of herd immunity since infections typically result in immunities and reinfections of viruses are atypical. (Months later, this would be adopted by the Great Barrington Declaration.) Thus, the idea was, by the time vaccines were produced and available to the public, the combination of natural immunities and vaccinations, particularly for those who should not have been exposed – the legitimately vulnerable – would largely serve to inoculate the population. With vaccines in process, doctors are now adopting this philosophy, projecting herd immunity within the next several months.[49]
Curiously, however, once vaccinations became available, priority included those who had already been infected and exhibited symptoms, namely, the elderly, at large.[50] Rather than adhere to traditional acceptance of natural immunity through contraction, governments opted to use their rationed vaccines on the previously infected. In what may have further reduced the efficacy of the public inoculation campaign, instead of getting the vaccine to as many as possible through a single dose of the two-dose vaccines, they opted to focus on getting select individuals their both doses. This approach was taken despite the fact that studies indicated the vaccines were upwards of 80% effective after a single dose, 95% after the second.[51] Extrapolating this numbers over populations suggests quicker and greater overall prevention of disease and death by prioritizing a single-dose solution ahead of the selective two-dose approach. (Compare: a pair of individuals that is 80% protected vs. a pair that is 47.5% protected because only a single individual was vaccinated.)
Had persistent reinfections been prevalent, no doubt, media coverage would have focused on this, ad nauseum. Instead, such cases have proven exceedingly rare.[52] And it is now widely believed that, due to the likelihood that individuals contracting the virus will exhibit little to no symptoms, the total number of infections far exceeds the official count,[53] perhaps by double,[54] suggesting millions of Americans may now have a natural immunity to the virus. In an ironic twist of fate, however, may it not prove that the failure to inoculate through contraction has left the public vulnerable to the more lethal variants, such as that coming from the U.K.[55] May the overprotective ‘helicopter governance’ not have facilitated vulnerability.
The world was faced with an alarming challenge in 2020. Politicians did what they believed was best. Were they correct? Was there a less restrictive, more rational approach that could have been implemented to stave off the virus without upheaving millions of lives? Perhaps one day, the statistical experts will be able to plug in the information to determine what would have been the optimal policy. Leaders will claim they saved lives. This is, no doubt, true, but how many, how many years’ worth, and at what cost.
Risk is unavoidable. Sadly, people will perish. But perhaps leaders could have found a means to isolate the elderly with enhanced protections, properly warned those with pre-existing medical conditions (including those overweight) and provided Americans with guidance while allowing them to continue with their lives as they strengthened their immune systems.
Then again, who knew coronavirus was so discriminatory? Only anybody who read the data and followed the science a year ago. And though politicians and scientists may have failed to consistently follow the science, coronavirus did not. Perhaps this was predictable, in all cases.
Despite the professions that the virus should not be politicized, the response was ripe for that very thing. It is the nature of conservatives and libertarians to assume more risk and personal responsibility, which is why they remain the most ardent supporters of lower taxes and free enterprise. Similarly, it is the nature of liberals and progressives to avoid risk, sharing responsibility, which is why they continue to push for more taxes and the expansion of the welfare state.
But instead of setting aside political ideology in effort to prepare, weigh, and measure a strategic response, the politico took the easy solution…suppression.
To suppress the virus, suppress the people.
To suppress the people, suppress the economy.
To suppress the economy, suppress liberty.
To suppress liberty, suppress dissent.
To suppress dissent, suppress information.
Leaders adopted the politics of the Great Suppression and stole a year from 330 million Americans. And now they are leaving their children to foot the bill.
Will Americans care?
In the end, the novel coronavirus will have killed hundreds of thousands of Americans. Will novel governments have killed everything else?
[1] Listings of WHO’s response to COVID-19, (World Health Organization, 2021)
[2] Editor, The Offence, The Coronavirus Dilemma: Facing Risk and Finding Balance, (The Offence, 2020)
[3] Colin Dwyer and Allison Aubrey, CDC Now Recommends Americans Consider Wearing Cloth Face Coverings In Public, (NPR, 2020)
[4] Editor, The Offence, Republicans Failed to Define the Price of Freedom, (The Offence, 2020)
[5] Tristan Justice, Rules For Thee But Not For Me: A Rundown Of Lockdown Leftists Ignoring Their Own Rules, (The Federalist, 2020)
[6] Lydia Saad, Americans Less Amenable to Another COVID-19 Lockdown, (Gallup, 2020)
[7] Joseph A. Wulfsohn, Amazon reverses after pulling Alex Berenson’s latest COVID-19 booklet without explanation, (Fox News, 2020)
[8] Luke Andrews and Sam Blanchard, Now 12,000 scientists and medics have signed anti-lockdown petition that urges officials to let Covid-19 spread among young and healthy people, (Daily Mail, 2020)
[9] Marc Caputo, DeSantis defies critics as coronavirus spreads in Florida, (Politico, 2020)
[10] NBC Bay Area staff, Nancy Pelosi Visits San Francisco’s Chinatown Amid Coronavirus Concerns, (NBC Bay Area, 2020)
[11] Mayor de Blasio, Speaker Johnson and Queens Chamber of Commerce Encourage New Yorkers to Visit Asian-American Owned Small Businesses, (NYC.gov, 2020)
[12] Dr. Fauci on coronavirus fears: No need to change lifestyle yet, (Today, 2020)
[13] Javier C. Hernandez, China Scores a Public Relations Win After W.H.O Mission to Wuhan, (The New York Times, 2020)
[14] Michael Collins, The WHO and China: Dereliction of Duty, (Council on Foreign Relations, 2020)
[15] Stephanie Nebehay, WHO chief says widespread travel bans not needed to beat China virus, (Reuters, 2020)
[16] The Associated Press, How China blocked WHO and Chinese scientists early in coronavirus outbreak, (NBC News, 2020)
[17] WHO Director-General’s opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 – 11 March 2020, (World Health Organization, 2020)
[18] Kathy Gilsinan, How China Is Planning to Win Back the World, (The Atlantic, 2020)
[19] Alexandra Stevenson, Senator Tom Cotton Repeats Fringe Theory of Coronavirus Origins, (The New York Times, 2020)
[20] David Cyranoski, China to Permit Lab Poised to Study World’s Most Dangerous Pathogens, (Scientific American, 2017)
[21] Barbara Sprunt, White House: China And WHO Need To ‘Step Up’ On Investigations Into Origin Of Pandemic, (NPR, 2021)
[22] 15 Days to Slow the Spread, (U.S. Department of Justice, 2020)
[23] Rosie Perper, Sarah Al-Arshani and Holly Secon, More than half of the US population is now under orders to stay home – here’s a list of coronavirus lockdowns in US states and cities, (Business Insider, 2020)
[24] Anna Medaris Miller, What months of lockdown does to your body and brain, (Business Insider, 2020)
[25] Heather Long, Small business used to define America’s economy, The pandemic could change that forever, (The Washington Post, 2020)
[26] Jeffry Bartash, The U.S. has only regained 42% of the 22 million jobs lost in the pandemic. Here’s where they are, (Market Watch, 2020)
[27] Russell Falcon, Are suicides on the rise during the COVID-19 pandemic? (KXAN News, 2020)
[28] Elaine K. Howley, Children’s Mental Health Crisis Could Be a Next ‘Wave’ in the Pandemic, (U.S. News & World Report, 2021)
[29] Morgan Winsor, US life expectancy drops 1 year in first half of 2020 amid coronavirus pandemic, CDC says, (ABC News, 2021)
[30] The Federal Response to COVID-19, (USASpending.gov, 2021)
[31] Sheri Fink, Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths, (The New York Times, 2020)
[32] New York Hospitals Sent 6,300 Recovering COVID Patients to Nursing Homes, (NBC New York, 2020)
[33] Jack Dolan, California orders skilled nursing facilities to accept coronavirus patients, (Los Angeles Times, 2020)
[34] Bernard Condon and Jennifer Peltz, AP: Over 9,000 virus patients sent into NY nursing homes, (AP News, 2021)
[35] Hillel Italie, Gov. Andrew Cuomo book on COVID-19 response out in October, (AP News, 2021)
[36] Hospitalization and Death by Age, (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2021)
[37] Valentina Di Donato, Sheena McKenzie and Livia Borghese, Italy’s coronavirus death toll passes 10,000. Many are asking why the fatality rate is so high, (CNN, 2020)
[38] Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) – United States, February 12-March 15, 2020, (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2020)
[39] Haiying Sun MD, Ruoqui Ning MD, Yu Tao MD, Chon Yu MD, Xioyan Deng MD, Caili Zhao NM, Silu Meng MM, Fangxu Tang MD and Dony Xu MD, PhD, Risk Factors for Mortality in 244 Older Adults With COVID-19 in Wuha, China: A Retrospective Study, (Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, 2020)
[40] John Elflein, Number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths in the U.S. as of March 3, 2021, age, (Statista, 2021)
[41] Cohort Life Expectancy, (Social Security, 2011)
[42] Body Mass Index and Risk for COVID-19-Related Hospitalizations, Intensive Care Unit Admission, Invasive Mechanical Ventilation, and Death – United States, March-December 2020, (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2021)
[43] Reuters Staff, Obesity a driving factor in COVID-19 deaths, global report finds, (Reuters, 2021)
[44] K-12 School Operational Strategy, (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2021)
[45] Jessica Dickler, Families jump to private schools as coronavirus drags on, (CNBC, 2020)
[46] Sarah Al-Arshani, Kids represent a small fraction of overall COVID-19 deaths in the US but 75% of them are children of color, (Business Insider, 2021)
[47] 2019-20 Season’s Pediatric Flu Deaths Tie High Mark Set During 2017-18 Season, (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2020)
[48] Key Statistics for Breast Cancer in Men, (American Cancer Society, 2021)
[49] Tim Fitzsimons, Fauci predicts ‘herd immunity’ for U.S. by late spring or early summer, (NBC News, 2021)
[50] Berkeley Lovelace Jr., CDC expands Covid vaccination guidelines to everyone 65 and older, (CNBC, 2021)
[51] Kelsey Piper, Should the US hold back vaccine doses? Biden says no, (Vox, 2021)
[52] Robin Foster and Ernie Mundell, COVID Reinfection Is Rare, But Seniors More Vulnerable: Study, (Health Day, 2021)
[53] Amina Khan, Pandemic’s reach far outstripped official coronavirus case counts, study suggests, (Los Angeles Times, 2021)
[54] Robert L. Stout, PhD and Steven J. Rigatti, MD, Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in the US Adult Asymptomatic Population as of September 30, 2020, (The Journal of the American Medical Association, 2021)
[55] Kate Kelland, UK COVID-19 variant has significantly higher death rate, study finds, (Reuters, 2021)
The Offence 