Much has been made of the divisive, confrontational style of modern politics.[1] Many of the complaints about Donald Trump, even from some supporters, revolve around his erratic behavior.[2] By contrast, his 2020 competitor, Joe Biden, has spent the last year portraying himself as a steady, reliable leader[3] who will not upend the political landscape, claiming the moral high ground and calling for a return to normalcy.[4] Whether this normalcy that he seeks is desired by a population that rejected it four years ago by electing Trump remains to be seen; however, few would disagree that the styles of the two candidates are significantly different.
Similarly, the styles of their respective political parties and supporters differ greatly, as evidenced by their response to the story of the year – the coronavirus crisis.[5] Since its outbreak, the more heavily Democratic areas have seen dramatic, arguably draconian, stay-at-home orders that shut down their economies and the rest of society along with it.[6] Democrats were largely accommodating, and went home. Republican areas were reluctant to enact such policies, allowing individuals to make more decisions for themselves. More so than their counterparts, Republicans remained out and about, proceeding with their regular lives, to the extent possible.[7] The dominating coronavirus response of the party members has been reflected in the 2020 candidates across the board, most notably with the presidential candidates’ portrayal of the future of the virus.
But Trump is a political creature unlike any other in American politics.
In ways that appear incomparable, Trump has taken a wrecking ball to political conventions.[8] From his initial announcement, where he criticized the handling of immigration along the southern border, referring to illegal entrants as drug dealers and rapists,[9] he has altered the previously acceptable level of discourse in American politics. And his supporters loved him for it, not merely because they may believe in everything he said – there was, no doubt, some intentional hyperbole in his language[10] – but because he was willing to stand up to a system they believed had grown unwilling to speak on their behalf, to identify with them and say what they see,[11] to call out Washington for its failures to protect the interests of the everyman, opting, instead, to remain gentile, non-disruptive, and accepting of Washington’s preferential politics,[12] which infamously rewards insiders and power players.
A wealthy outsider with few political obligations and little to lose, he was positioned to approach the campaign with an unseen, uncompromised, no holds barred brazenness – the personification of a political warthog – thick-skinned, unnerved, wallowing in the mud, squealing and charging with tusks at the ready:
“Warthogs are those seemingly self-assured individuals who are never at a loss for words. Their bellicose behavior dominates all aspects of their successful lives (a la Donald Trump.) Neither polished nor good-looking, warthogs have stumbled upon a unique combination of aggression and charisma and have adopted it as their survival strategy.”[13] – animalinyou.com
The embodiment of self-confidence and bravado, Trump ran roughshod over his competition in the Republican primary, the media,[14] and Hillary Clinton with personal attacks that included name-calling[15] and accusations by implication.[16] And it continues to this day.
On the other side of the political aisle rests Biden, a candidate who has remained out of sight for much of the campaign,[17] and with cause. Known for his political gaffes,[18] the more he exposes himself to the public, the more he takes questions, the more likely cracks will appear in the presidential mantel he presents. There are even those who would argue the closer he gets to the public, the less the public embraces him, as has been suggested of his disastrous performance in the Iowa caucuses,[19] a rather unique arena in which voters are more directly exposed to candidates.
Instead, since clinching the nomination, the Biden campaign has kept him underground, closely controlling the media’s access to him.[20] But when he lashes out at favorable interviewers with phrases like “you aint’ black”[21] if you don’t know who to vote for and reactively inquiring if a reporter is a “junkie,”[22] one begins to wonder if the cellar politics have been working as well as his strategists would hope. (He certainly does not appear to be aging like a fine wine.) His handlers, on the other hand, would ask you to ignore his outbursts and sometimes distracted appearance, insisting there is no reason to suspect the aged politico has exhibited any diminished mental faculties.[23]
Although his strategy largely reflects the dominating Democratic stay-at-home approach to 2020, it has run the risk of making Biden look less like the cautious leader and more a vulnerable old man afraid to venture out. But he has not remained completely underground. Eventually, he began to climb out from his ‘basement’ to make speeches…yet he refused to take questions from reporters – likely out of concern for what he might reveal – as if the groundhog which saw its shadow and quickly dived back underground. And with a lead in the polls, this strategy largely remained. It was not until the polls began to tighten that he resumed the semblance of a traditional campaign.[24]
Unlike President Trump, who was regularly, and fearlessly, taking questions from aggressive White House correspondents, giving unscripted interviews and flying across the country, arriving at airports filled with hundreds, often thousands, of supporters, Biden, like the groundhog that prefers to stay close to home,[25] opted to hold virtual fundraising events and ‘rallies’ from the comfort of his home in Delaware.[26]
Déjà vu All Over Again?
Democrats may be repeating the core failures of Clinton’s 2020 campaign – presumption and lack of imagination. They are playing not to lose,[27] presuming the alternative is so outside of the mainstream – so terrible – that voters have no alternative. This can easily happen when you live in a bubble, when you cannot imagine the country believing so different from yourself. Staying home does little to burst that bubble. One would believe the pundits and strategists supporting Biden would have recognized this, and adjusted. Instead, they remained self-contained, doubling down on the strategy to the extent that their candidate largely continued to remain out of sight[28] – continuing the Hidin’ Joe Biden approach.[29]
Rather than engage the voters, Biden opted to withdraw from public view.
Given his 32-year history as a failed presidential candidate, one laden with lies, plagiarism, gaffes[30] and uncomfortable scenes,[31] this may prove the correct strategy. And it could be true that the more voters get to know Biden, the less they find him an appealing candidate, but it is a weak attempt to win the highest office of the land, and voters can sense strength, or the lack thereof.[32]
The question remains, why has his campaign been so eager to “put a lid” on him?[33] One puts a lid on something to keep it from getting worse. Why does Biden’s campaign feel more of him will make things worse? What has his campaign known about him that they have tried to prevent from escaping? With consistent dodges to legitimate questions about court packing[34] and his son’s involvement with foreign entities,[35] which could be easily addressed were there no concerns about the truth, voters may be left wondering if the campaign simply does not want the truth to come out? An unusual path to victory in a country that is crying aloud for leadership, a practice of deflection and protection is setting up for another prolonged state of perplexing reflection.
For half the nation, which fears the reelection of Trump[36] and believes America to be in the stormiest of winters, yet turns to a candidate that portends a “dark winter” ahead,[37] voters will have to hope that the Keystone state’s human counterpart of Pennsylvania’s own Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow, only to foretell that extended winter.
Considering Americans’ predisposition to optimism and risk,[38] who is America going to select to lead them through the end of the current crisis – a bloviating hyperbolic billionaire who is consistently out there, defying convention while offering an optimistic vision for his second term with promises of economic rebirth, or a bumbling old man who flubs his words while tucked away in the safety of his home offering pessimistic warnings of a long recovery and the need to take on unprecedented debt? Irrespective of where voters find themselves on the issue, the difference in style and messaging is striking.
Donald Trump’s relentless campaign strategy helped vault him to an unexpected 2016 win as Hillary Clinton neglected to campaign in crucial swing states,[39] as if the polls were sufficient for her to rest on one’s laurels. With the polls largely paralleling what we saw this time four years ago,[40] the Democrat’s narrowing leads[41] as Trump repeats his closing campaign efforts, and the minimal campaigning and outreach of the Biden team prior to the closing days, have Democrats repeated the failure of 2016?
As Groundhog Joe remained underground, unavailable, less engaged, even evasive, there was a warthog above ground, unafraid, vigorously foraging for all the votes he could find.
Will November 3rd be the groundhog’s day or will it just be Groundhog Day?
[1] Alan Abramowitz and Steven Weber, ‘Negative Partisanship’ Explains Everything, (Politico, 2017)
[2] Few Americans Express Positive Views of Trump’s in Office, (Pew Research Center, 2020)
[3] Joe’s leadership during the COVID-19 Pandemic, (Joe Biden, 2020)
[4] Ezra Klein, Joe Biden’s promise: a return to normalcy, (Vox, 2020)
[5] Republicans, Democrats Move Even Further Apart in Coronavirus Concerns, (Pew Research Center, 2020)
[6] Nicole Goodkind, States with the least coronavirus restrictions all voted for Trump, (Fortune, 2020)
[7] Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Anna Wiederkehr, Republicans And Democrats See COVID-19 Very Differently. Is That Making People Sick? (FiveThirtyEight, 2020)
[8] Jonathan Lemire, Trump’s presidency has changed Washington, defined convention, (AP News, 2018)
[9] Washington Post Staff, Full Text: Donald Trump announces a presidential bid, (The Washington Post, 2015)
[10] Jeet Heer, Donald Trump Is Not a Liar, (The New Republic, 2016)
[11] Stephen D. Reicher and S. Alexander Haslam, Trump’s Appeal: What Psychology Tells Us, (Scientific American, 2017)
[12] Matt Flegenheimer and Michal Barbaro, Donald Trump Is Elected President in Stunning Repudiation of the Establishment, (The New York Times, 2016)
[13] The Warthog Personality, (Animal in You)
[14] Jack Shafer, How Trump Took Over the Media By Fighting It, (Politico, 2016)
[15] Colby Itkowitz, ‘Little Marco,’ ‘Lyin’ Ted,’ ‘Crooked Hillary:’ How Donald Trump makes name calling stick, (Washington Post, 2016)
[16] Nolan D. McCaskill, Trump accuses Cruz’s father of helping JFK’s assassin, (Politico, 2020)
[17] Marc Caputo and Christopher Cadelago, Dems warm to Biden’s bunker strategy, (Politico, 2020)
[18] Tristan Justice, The Biden Gaffe Machine: A Running List Of Joe Biden’s Best Slip-Ups, (The Federalist, 2019)
[19] Edward-Isaac Dovere, How Biden Blew It, (The Atlantic, 2020)
[20] Chris Cillizza, It’s long past time for Joe Biden to start taking questions from the press, (CNN, 2020)
[21] Christina Wilkie, Biden tells African American radio host: ‘You ain’t black’ if you have trouble deciding between Trump and me, (CNBC, 2020)
[22] Justin Vallejo, Biden asks reporter if he’s a ‘junkie’ in testy exchange over cognitive decline, (Independent, 2020)
[23] Glenn Greenwald, Democrats and Their Media Allies Impugned Biden’s Cognitive Fitness. Now They Feign Outrage, (The Intercept, 2020)
[24] David Millward, Joe Biden to go on the road again as poll leads shrinks, (The Telegraph, 2020)
[25] Alina Bradford, Facts About Groundhogs, (Live Science, 2017)
[26] Beatrice Peterson, Terrance Smith and May Allice Parks, Joe Biden ramping up virtual fundraising in final stretch of campaign cycle, (ABC News, 2020)
[27] Michael McKenna, Biden losing momentum by playing prevent defense, (The Washington Times, 2020)
[28] Susan Milligan, Where’s Joe Biden? (US News & World Report, 2020)
[29] Scott Walker, Hidin’ Biden stays in basement and skips Milwaukee, (The Washington Times, 2020)
[30] Olivia B. Waxman, Why Joe Biden’s First Campaign for President Collapsed After Just 3 Months, (Time, 2019)
[31] Karol Markowicz, America Shouldn’t Tolerate ‘Biden Being Biden’, (Time, 2015)
[32] Charlie Gerow, Biden projects weakness – a tough sell to Americans, (The Hill, 2020)
[33] Tim Graham, Joe Biden Keeps a tight lid on mainstream media, (Boston Herald, 2020)
[34] Barbara Sprunt, Biden Campaign Continues To Deflect On Court-Packing (NPR, 2020)
[35] Ebony Bowden, Joe Biden avoids questions on son Hunter amid low-key campaign trail, (New York Post, 2020)
[36] Michael Scherer, 2020 election polls: Biden leads Trump but Democrats fear repeat of 2016, (Independent, 2020)
[37] Caitlin O’Kane, “We’re about to go into a dark winter”: Biden says Trump has no plan for coronavirus, (CBS News, 2020)
[38] Keith Mays and Julie Scheidegger, A letter from the editors: Believe in risk, (Kauffman, 2020)
[39] Ronald Brownstein, How the Rustbelt Paved Trump’s Road to Victory, (The Atlantic, 2020)
[40] Alex Seitz-Wald, Why Trump vs. Biden is a lot like 2016 – and why it’s not, (NBC News, 2020)
[41] Top Battlegrounds: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, (Real Clear Politics, 2020)
The Offence 