The Democrats’ Coronavirus Gambit Is Working

Part I of III

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No matter what happens through the remainder of the year, 2020 will be forever known for coronavirus – for the virus itself, the political response to it and the socio-economic consequences, which together have caused unprecedented damage to the social and economic[1] lives of the American people.[2]  Democrats have been fully aware of the coronavirus’ political implications and with a Republican incumbent as president, they have made the election about Donald Trump’s handling of, and leadership during, the pandemic, even to the point of ignoring policy discussions.[3]  The polls suggest this has been working.  While Joe Biden leads in most polls,[4] he has built a significant advantage when asked who Americans trust more with the virus.[5]

Consequently, with millions of Americans still struggling to make it through the crisis, it has been to Democrats’ political advantage for the problem to linger, which could easily factor into Nancy Pelosi’s reluctance to provide voters with targeted relief ahead of the election, instead, holding out for a larger omnibus bill that includes money for policies and practices that Republicans argue is unrelated to the crisis.[6]  Critics would contend this mentality has governed leaders across the country, from the Speaker of the House down to local officials like the Los Angeles County Public Health Director, who, in September, indicated it was unlikely reopening schools would occur “until after the election.”[7]  Although she tried to walk back the timing of the comments, why the election would be referenced with public health guidance on schools remains curious.

Following the early casual dismissals of the threat, in which politicians downplayed the virus, including Bill de Blasio and Pelosi’s invitations to their respective Chinatowns,[8]^,[9] Democrats have certainly proven more cautious[10] and quicker to implement restrictions[11] than their Republican counterparts, but when does the promotion of caution become the promotion of fear?  Better yet, for all the credit that Democrats give to the restrictive reaction to the threat, they are left having to prove a negative, as if to suggest ‘you are alive because of what we did.’  This, of course, is unverifiable.  In fact, there are studies that contradict the positive claims, indicating lockdown measures do not work to contain the virus,[12] and recommendations that they should be avoided, wherever possible, as per the latest advice from the World Health Organization (WHO).[13]

The verifiable; however, is that these measures have left millions of voters out of work, out of business, as evidenced by the high unemployment rates in the more aggressive states led by Democrats.  As example, the August unemployment rates indicate that of the ten (10) states with the highest unemployment – Nevada, Rhode Island, New York, Hawaii, California, New Mexico, Massachusetts, Illinois, New Jersey and Pennsylvania[14] – nine (9) are run by Democrat governors.

	August Unemployment Rate	Rank
Nevada	13.2%	50
Rhode Island	12.8%	49
Hawaii	12.5%	48
New York	12.5%	47
California	11.4%	46
Massachusetts	11.3%	45
New Mexico	11.3%	44
Illinois	11.0%	43
New Jersey	10.9%	42
Pennsylvania	10.3%	41

Conversely, of the ten (10) with the lowest unemployment rates – Nebraska, Utah, Idaho, South Dakota, Vermont, North Dakota, Alabama, Georgia, Montana and Oklahoma – states that did not impose the same degree of restrictions, nine (9) are run by Republican governors.

	August Unemployment Rate	Rank
Oklahoma	5.7%	10
Alabama	5.6%	9
Georgia	5.6%	8
Montana	5.6%	7
North Dakota	5.0%	6
South Dakota	4.8%	5
Vermont	4.8%	4
Idaho	4.2%	3
Utah	4.1%	2
Nebraska	4.0%	1

While the average unemployment rate of the former group is 11.7 percent and the latter is 5.1 percent, a difference of 229 percent, the COVID-19 case rates, as measured by total per 100,000 population, are 2,197 and 2,768 respectively, a difference of only 26 percent.[15]  The figures suggest the aggressive actions, though beneficial in limiting the virus, have disproportionately damaged the economy, indicating a more measured approach to the virus may have been warranted from the beginning, as meant by the Republican president’s early warning – much criticized by critics – that “we cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself.”[16]

Preferring the more dramatic actions, these same critics looked to Democratic gubernatorial leadership throughout the crisis, particularly Andrew Cuomo of New York,[17] who they presented as the prime example of calm leadership and for whom conversations even began about replacing Joe Biden on the presidential ticket.[18]  Yet this standard bearer, though working in cooperation with the federal government and receiving enormous amounts of aid,[19]^,[20] made the emotional proclamation “you pick the 26,000 people who are going to die”[21] while mishandling his population’s most vulnerable, the elderly,[22] and vastly miscalculating the need for ventilators.  His failures came despite the fact that before the virus struck New York, it was already known that the elderly were predisposed to the worst outcomes.[23]^,[24]  And he responded to this failure by failing to acknowledge that the blanket draconian measures based on countervailing data resulted in an abhorrent death count in nursing homes,[25] the sort of “blame me” responsibility he once advocated[26] became a responsibility he would ultimately dismiss,[27] having since written a book on his leadership throughout the crisis.[28]

In other words, like the scientists,[29] Democrats’ opinions about coronavirus, though consistently led with emotion, often evoking fear, have evolved, and the results have been mixed.  They have, however, remained consistently critical of the president and quick to direct blame outward,[30] which has played well for them politically.  By indicating that one is simply following the science[31] – the recommendations of the leaders in the medical field – one can easily deflect any responsibility for decisions, suggesting the negative consequences are simply the result of science.  They postured themselves with the defense ‘we did what was asked of us by the leading authorities on the issue,’ a curious position devoid of the very leadership they claim has been lacking from the federal government.[32]

At the same time, Republican leaders who resisted the implementation of the more dramatic medical measures recommended to mitigate contraction, including the shuttering of economies, exposed themselves to criticism, as if they were uncaring, even if their decisions proved the more workable solutions.  They led.  They took risks.  They were not simply followers of the evolving medical opinions.  They were appreciable that physical health is not the only issue of concern.[33]

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(See Part II: Voters Elect Leaders, Not Scientists)

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[1] Lauren Bauer, Kristen E. Broady, Wendy Edelberg and Jimmy O’Donnell, Ten Facts about COVID-19 and the U.S. Economy, (Brookings, 2020)

[2] Reginald D. Williams II, Arnav Shah, Roosa Tikkanen, Eric C. Schneider and Michelle M. Doty, Do Americans Face Greater Mental Health and Economic Consequences from COVID-19?  Comparing the U.S. with Other High-Income Countries, (The Commonwealth Fund, 2020)

[3] Rich Lowry, The Democratic Convention Is a Massive Evasion, (Politico, 2020)

[4] Latest Polls, (FiveThirtyEight, 2020)

[5] Amid Campaign Turmoil, Biden Holds Wide Leads on Coronavirus, Unifying the Country, (Pew Research Center, 2020)

[6] Maris Schultz, Moderate Democrats pressure Pelosi, House leadership to move new coronavirus bill: ‘Stop the stupidity,’ (Fox News, 2020)

[7] CBSLA Staff, LA County Health Director Says No Link Between Election, School Reopening Plans, (CBS Los Angeles, 2020)

[8] Eyewiitness News, Coronavirus fears: Mayor Bill de Blasio, city officials visit Queens, (WABC-TV New York, 2020)

[9] NBC Bay Area staff, Nancy Pelosi Visit San Francisco’s Chinatown Amid Coronavirus, (NBC Bay Area, 2020)

[10] Cary Funk and Alex Tyson, Partisan Differences Over the Pandemic Response Are Growing, (Pew Research Center, 2020)

[11] Democratic governors are quicker in responding to the coronavirus than Republicans, (The Conversation, 2020)

[12] Lyman Stone, Lockdowns Don’t Work, (Public Discourse, 2020)

[13] Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): Herd immunity, lockdowns and COVID-19, (World Health Organization, 2020)

[14] Unemployment Rates for States, (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2020)

[15] Covid in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count, (The New York Times, 2020, as of October 19)

[16] Maggie Haberman and David E. Sanger, Trump Says Coronavirus Cure Cannot ‘Be Worse Than the Problem Itself,’ (The New York Times, 2020)

[17] Weng Cheong, 3 traits all managers can copy from New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s strong but calm response to the pandemic that will earn your team’s trust in a crisis, (Business Insider, 2020)

[18] Justin Vallejo, Voters prefer Andrew Cuomo over Joe Biden, poll finds, (The Independent, 2020)

[19] Tom Brune, $64B in coronavirus aid flows to NY, with some strings attached, (Newsday, 2020)

[20] Bill Chappell, Hospital Ship USNS Comfort Arrives In New York To Ease Coronavirus Pressure, (NPR, 2020)

[21] Audrey McNamara, Cuomo slams federal inaction as coronavirus desperation mounts: “You pick” who’s “going to die,” (CBS News, 2020)

[22] Elaine Healy, Gov. Cuomo is still failing New York’s nursing homes, (New York Post, 2020)

[23] Russell Berman, No, COVID-19 Is Not a Metaphor, (The Atlantic, 2020)

[24] Claudia Cristoferi and Elisa Anzolin, Coronavirus toll on Italy’s elderly strains ‘nonni’ safety net, (Reuters, 2020)

[25] Joaquin Sapien and Joe Sexton, Andrew Cuomo’s Report on Controversial Nursing Home Policy for COVID Patients Prompts More Controversy, (Propublica, 2020)

[26] Rebecca C. Lewis, Cuomo said “blame me,” but he hasn’t always taken responsibility, (City & State New York, 2020)

[27] Bernadette Hogan, ‘It never happened’: Cuomo denies causing 6,500 nursing home deaths, (New York Post, 2020)

[28] Jimmy Vielkind, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo Writes Book on Coronavirus Pandemic, (The Wall Street Journal, 2020)

[29] Bryan Walsh and Alison Snyder, Scientists caught between pandemic and protests, (Axios, 2020)

[30] Debra Saunders, Blaming Trump, but giving Democrats a pass on U.S. COVID-19 response, (The Independent, 2020)

[31] Lisa Mascaro, Pelosi to church: ‘Follow science’ on COVID-19 restrictions, (ABC News, 2020)

[32] Michael D. Shear, Noah Weiland, Eric Lipton, Maggie Haberman and David E. Sanger, (The New York Times, 2020)

[33] Jamie Knodel, Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick suggests he, other seniors willing to die to get economy going again, (NBC News, 2020)